The Dept-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions
Irving Fisher är den ekonom som vi kanske mest tydligt förknippar med 30-talskraschen. Det gör vi av ett alldeles speciellt skäl, han lyckades i september 1929, bara några veckor innan börskraschen i oktober, säga att “stock prices had reached a permanently high plateau” och för det fick han lida narr och gyckel för resten av sitt liv (dessutom förlorade han hela sin förmögenhet). Det som då glöms bort är att han var en stor ekonom.
Mitt under depressionen, 1933, publicerade han ett utomordentligt intressant dokument, The Dept-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, där han i kondenserad form – i 49 korta påståenden/förklaringar/ beskrivningar (det han kallar ”articles”) – försöker härleda varför vissa kriser leder till Great Depressions. Hans slutsats blir att det är en kombination av extraordinär kreditexpansion som leder till over-indeptedness och ”following soon after” deflation. ”In short, the big bad actors are dept disturbances and pricelevel disturbances”.
Det är ingen tvekan om att The Dept-Deflation Theory är en intellektuell prestation utöver det vanliga. Men det är också en lättfattlig vägledning för politiker och andra som vill undvika finansiella bubblor och djupa kriser i den reala ekonomin, och särskilt depressioner. Jag skulle gissa att dagens centralbankschefer, medvetet eller omedvetet, har tagit till sig Irving Fishers Dept-Deflation Theory vilket kan förklara varför deflation undvikits, och kanske därmed varför krisen vi lever mitt uppe i inte blev en ny 30-tals kris, en ny Great Depression.
Så läs gärna The Dept-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, det är uppfriskande.
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