Vad kan vi lära av gamla kriser?
Kenneth Rogoff och Carmen Reinhart publicerade för ett drygt år sedan ett mycket uppmärksammat papper, The Aftermath of Financial Crisis. Det man gjorde var att studera vad som faktiskt hade hänt med bland annat arbetslösheten, BNP och aktiemarknad i de västländer som tidigare drabbats av stora finansiella kriser (som mer eller mindre undantagslöst sprider sig till den reala sektorn). I studien ingår bland andra den svenska 90-talskrisen som Rogoff/Reinhart intressant nog klassar som en av ”de fem stora” kriserna i modern tid. Vad kan man då lära? Ja, till exempel att aktiemarknaden i genomsnitt för dessa kriser sjunker 56% från toppen innan krisen till botten under krisen. Och att det tar 3,4 år för dippen på aktiemarknaden att arbeta sig tillbaka till högstanivån före krisen. På samma sätt tar det arbetslösheten över fem år att arbeta sig tillbaka till lägsta-nivån före krisen. För nedgången i BNP per capita går det snabbare, 2år, att komma tillbaka till tillväxt.
Tror vi på att dagens kris följer gamla mönster kommer med andra ord aktiemarknaden att vara tillbaka på sin gamla ”peak” från sensommaren 2007 någon gång i slutet av det här året, eller i början av 2011. Arbetslösheten kommer inte vara tillbaka på de låga nivåerna före krisen förrän någon gång under 2013. Och fallet i BNP per capita kommer att ha hämtats in mot slutet av det här året.
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