karl-henrik pettersson

karlhenrikpettersson.se

Filosofiska tankar om företagande och ekonomi

Vilket samhälle vill vi ha? Hur mycket marknad? Hur mycket politik? Varför dessa ekonomiska orättvisor?

Vad kan vi lära av gamla kriser?

Kenneth Rogoff och Carmen Reinhart publicerade för ett drygt år sedan ett mycket uppmärksammat papper, The Aftermath of Financial Crisis. Det man gjorde var att studera vad som faktiskt hade hänt med bland annat arbetslösheten, BNP och aktiemarknad i de västländer som tidigare drabbats av stora finansiella kriser (som mer eller mindre undantagslöst sprider sig till den reala sektorn). I studien ingår bland andra den svenska 90-talskrisen som Rogoff/Reinhart intressant nog klassar som en av ”de fem stora” kriserna i modern tid. Vad kan man då lära? Ja, till exempel att aktiemarknaden i genomsnitt för dessa kriser sjunker 56% från toppen innan krisen till botten under krisen. Och att det tar 3,4 år för dippen på aktiemarknaden att arbeta sig tillbaka till högstanivån före krisen. På samma sätt tar det arbetslösheten över fem år att arbeta sig tillbaka till lägsta-nivån före krisen. För nedgången i BNP per capita går det snabbare, 2år, att komma tillbaka till tillväxt.

Tror vi på att dagens kris följer gamla mönster kommer med andra ord aktiemarknaden att vara tillbaka på sin gamla ”peak” från sensommaren 2007 någon gång i slutet av det här året, eller i början av 2011. Arbetslösheten kommer inte vara tillbaka på de låga nivåerna före krisen förrän någon gång under 2013. Och fallet i BNP per capita kommer att ha hämtats in mot slutet av det här året.

rogoff

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Print
  • email
2010-01-29

540 Kommentarer

  1. pharmacy website india: india online pharmacy cheapest online pharmacy india
    buy prescription drugs from india https://indiaph.ink/# – online shopping pharmacy india

  2. mexican mail order pharmacies: mexican border pharmacies shipping to usa mexican mail order pharmacies
    medicine in mexico pharmacies http://mexicoph.icu/# – mexican mail order pharmacies

  3. meds online without prescription – legitimate online pharmacy no prescription medicine with no prescription
    canadian online pharmacy: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – cnadian pharmacy

  4. top canadian pharmacies – buying prescription drugs from canada online best online pharmacies without prescription
    quality prescription drugs canada: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – online pharmacy no prescription needed

  5. canadian drugstore – no rx online pharmacy cheapest pharmacy canada
    canadian online pharmacy reviews: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# Рcanadian pharmacy en espa̱ol

  6. no prescription canadian pharmacies – best online pharmacy best canadian mail order pharmacy
    online pharmacy without scripts: https://interpharm.pro/# – top rated canadian pharmacy online

  7. foreign online pharmacy no perscription pharmacy canadian rx

  8. candaian pharmacies – canadian prescription drugstore review canada pharmacies online prescriptions
    canadian pharmacy no prescription: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – canadian pharmacy world coupon code

  9. mexican pharmacies no prescription – canada prescriptions by mail pharmacy on line canada
    mexican pharmacies that ship to usa: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – pharmacy no perscription

  10. canadian drugs online – canadian pharmacy meds coupon online international pharmacy
    us based online pharmacy: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – order from canadian pharmacy

  11. best online pharmacy without prescription – online no prescription pharmacy order medication without prescription
    pharmacy no prescription: https://interpharm.pro/# – no prescription drugs online

  12. canadian pharnacy – online meds without prescription online pharmacies without prescription
    no rx meds: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – best online pharmacy canada

  13. online medication without prescription – mail order prescriptions from canada online pharmacy mexico
    best non prescription online pharmacy: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – online canadian pharmacies

  14. canada drugs no prescription – reliable online pharmacies mexican pharmacies that ship to usa
    mexico drug store online: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – online mexico pharmacy

  15. online pharmacy without prescriptions – order from canadian pharmacy good online mexican pharmacy
    canada rx online: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – no presciption needed

  16. 1 online worldwide drugstore – buying pharmaceuticals from canada canada rx prices
    buy drugs online canada: https://interpharm.pro/# – canada pharmacy no rx

  17. buying prescription medicine online – online pharmacies no prescription usa online mexican pharmacies
    best online canadian pharmacy: https://interpharm.pro/# – what is the best pharmacy in canada

  18. best price canadian pharmacy Рpharmacy online no prescription canadian pharmacy en espa̱ol
    top rated canadian pharmacies: https://interpharm.pro/# – rx canadian pharmacy

  19. canadian pharmacy – mexico drug stores online prescription online canada
    online pharmacy america: https://interpharm.pro/# – cheapest pharmacy online

  20. no prescription medication – canadaian pharmacy legit canadian pharmacy
    medicine with no prescription: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – canadian pharmacy service

  21. pharmacy online no prescription – www canadian pharmacy com good online mexican pharmacy
    pharmacies online canada: https://interpharm.pro/# – online pharmacy america

  22. Do you have a spam issue on this site; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have created some nice procedures and we are looking to swap strategies with other folks, why not shoot me an e-mail if interested.

  23. buy meds online without prescription – buy prescription drugs online without canada rx prices
    canadian pharmacy discount: https://interpharm.pro/# – canadian pharmacy no rx

  24. You really make it seem so easy with your presentation however I in finding this topic to be really something which I think I might never understand. It kind of feels too complicated and very vast for me. I am looking forward on your next publish, I will try to get the cling of it!

  25. online pharmacy not requiring prescription canadian rx pharmacy online or mail order canada
    http://thefinestaccessories.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=interpharm.pro mexico pharmacy online drugstore
    mexican pharmacies that ship to usa best online pharmacy and highest rated canadian pharmacy buy prescription drugs online without doctor

  26. canada drug pharmacy promo code – canadian viagra pharmacies online prescription canada
    reviews of canadian online pharmacies: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – online canadian pharmacy legit

  27. Thank you for any other informative web site. Where else may I am getting that kind of info written in such a perfect method? I have a challenge that I am simply now running on, and I have been at the glance out for such information.

  28. I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this blog. I’m hoping to view the same high-grade blog posts from you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my very own blog now 😉

  29. canadia pharmacy – canadian drugstore no prescription pharmacy
    best online mexican pharmacy: https://interpharm.pro/# – online international pharmacy

  30. rx canadian pharmacy – canada online pharmacy legitimate buy without perscription
    online pharmacy in canada: https://internationalpharmacy.icu/# – www online pharmacy

  31. Hiya! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you happen to be interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

  32. What’s up, after reading this remarkable article i am too glad to share my knowledge here with friends.

  33. no prescription pharmacy – no rx online pharmacy online india pharmacy
    online pharmacy with prescription: https://interpharm.pro/# – trusted online pharmacies

  34. rx canadian pharmacy canada drugs on line or canadiam pharmacy
    http://www.clearhsa.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=internationalpharmacy.icu online medication without prescription
    top rated online pharmacies indian pharmacy online and online pharmacy without scripts canadian drugs no prescription

  35. Hi mates, how is all, and what you wish for to say regarding this piece of writing, in my view its truly awesome for me.

  36. After exploring a number of the blog articles on your web site, I honestly like your way of blogging. I saved it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Please check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.

  37. After looking over a few of the blog articles on your web site, I truly like your way of blogging. I saved it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Take a look at my web site as well and let me know what you think.

  38. discount drugs from canada canada prescription online or no prescription medication
    http://ioipayrollservices.us/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=interpharm.pro buy drugs online without a prescription
    pharmacy online canada on line pharmacy canada and no prescription pharmacy online cheapest pharmacy online

Skriv kommentar