karl-henrik pettersson


Filosofiska tankar om företagande och ekonomi

Vilket samhälle vill vi ha? Hur mycket marknad? Hur mycket politik? Varför dessa ekonomiska orättvisor?

Banker – behövs dom? (2): “Volcker rule”

”Volcker rule” är begreppet det talas mycket om just nu i bankkretsar. Det är det förslag till reform av det finansiella systemet som Obama presenterade för en månad sedan, i slutet av januari 2010, och som fick sitt namn efter Paul Volcker, den fd amerikanske centralbankschefen, nu rådgivare åt Obama och den som sägs mer än någon annan ligga bakom förslaget. Kort sagt innebär ”Volcker rule” att det skulle göras en legal och organisatorisk bodelning mellan sedvanlig bankverksamhet (typ inlåning från allmänheten, utlåning till privatpersoner och SMEs och betalningar) och annan finansiell verksamhet (typ hedgefonder, investmentbanking och annat som har mer spekulativ karaktär). Den första menar Volcker är en samhällsservice som är värd ett skydd från samhällets sida (till exempel genom en inlåningsförsäkring). Den andra bör spela på marknadens villkor utan särskilt samhällsskydd.

Att något måste göras för att undvika framtida finansiella härdsmältor av den typ vi nästan upplevde i oktober 2009 då total kollaps i det globala finansiella systemet var verkligt nära, är väl självklart. Och att något måste göras för att de stora finansiella konglomeraten inte skall kunna växa sig ännu större (vilket faktiskt har blivit följden av krisen), och göra principen ”too big to fail“ ännu mer politiskt tvingande (vilket också har blivit följden), är lika självklart.

Om det betyder att ”Volcker rule” bör bli verklighet är en helt annan sak. Alldeles bortsett från det politiskt möjliga, är jag för min del inte säker på det. Även om ”Volcker rule” ännu så länge bara är en skiss, tycker jag att man blir misstänksam. Det går att ställa berättigade frågor till Paul Volcker som görs av senator Mike Johanns i den här tänkvärda videon.

Jag tycker, kort sagt, att ”Volcker rule” inte går  till botten med det som är själva grunden till instabiliteten, att den basala byggstenen i det finansiella systemet, banken som organisatorisk enhet, i sig är instabil.  Så länge man har ett finansiellt system där banker är den viktigaste spelaren måste det till hårdhänt reglering och tillsyn. Och det i sin tur skapar ytterligare problem. Det man måste leta efter är en lösning där banken ersätts med en organisation som inte riskerar att gå överstyr bara för att det skapas rykten om att kreditsidan eller någon annan del av banken sannolikt har brister (det som kan ge en ”run” i en bank). En tänkbar lösning är att man låter ”open ended” fonder (typ sedvanliga ömsesidiga fonder) som definitionsmässigt inte kan gå i konkurs vara huvudsaklig byggsten i det finansiella systemet. Det skrev jag mycket om för 15 år sedan, bland annat i Banker – behövs dom?

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