Banker-behövs dom? (4): Limited Purpose Banking
Under det senaste året har det dykt upp ett nytt uttryck – Limited Purpose Banking – för en radikal förändring av bank- och finanssystemet. Det är Laurence J. Kotlikoff, professor vid Boston University, som har myntat begreppet. Det är ett tänkande i samma anda som Narrow Banking, Volcker Rule och andra liknande idéer med den gemensamma nämnaren att det måste göras något radikalt åt finanssystemet i allmänhet, och åt de banker som blivit ”too big to fail” i synnerhet. Det är bara det att Limited Purpose Banking går längre än andra förslag, och är så radikalt att de flesta har svårt att ta till sig förslaget. Eller att överhuvudtaget lyssna. Enligt Business Week vill exempelvis The American Bankers Association inte ens kommentera förslaget. Ändå finns det personer i det globala finanssystemets innersta kretsar som uttryckt intresse, till exempel Mervyn King, Governor i Bank of England, som i varje fall sagt att förslaget är värt att studeras närmare och debatteras. Det har också ett antal akademiker gjort, bland andra Nobelpristagaren Robert Lucas och Jeffrey Sachs.
Jag skall försöka tolka Kotlikoffs tankar med hjälp av några citat ur en kort artikel, Back to Basics, som han publicerade i The New Republic i maj 2009. Det är citat ur artikeln med mina kommentarer.
Banken blir som ett fondbolag
Under Limited Purpose Banking, all financial corporations engaged in financial intermediation, including all banks and insurance companies, would function exclusively as middlemen who sell safe as well as risky collections of securities (mutual funds) to the public. They would never, themselves, own financial assets…
…Banks would operate exclusively as pass‐through mutual funds. Specifically, they would be permitted to one and only one set of activities: create mutual funds, sell shares to these funds to the public, and use the proceeds to purchase assets. These mutual funds would provide as much credit as the economy needs, allow us to engage in as much risk‐taking as we want, and provide maximum liquidity.
There are already some 8,000 or so mutual funds on the market. Under LPB, there’d be more, including cash mutual funds that hold only cash, pay no interest, and never break the buck. Holders of cash funds could access their dollars at ATMs, via writing checks, or by using debit cards. Thus, cash funds represent the checking accounts in the new financial system.
Min tolkning är följande: En banks uppgift enligt Kotlikoff inskränks till att mäkla, dvs banken själv kan inte ta position vare sig på tillgångs- eller skuldsidan. Bankens balansräkning består bara av de eventuella tillgångar som behövs för verksamheten, till exempel en fastighet eller möbler och inventarier. Bankens intäkter skulle, antar jag, komma i form av provisioner och andra intäkter kopplade till försäljningen av fonderna, ungefär på samma sätt som fondbolagen tjänar pengar idag.
Banken skulle som sparprodukt enbart sälja andelar i ömsesidiga fonder som skulle finnas i ett stort antal riskkategorier, allt från nollrisk i kassafonder till högrisk i olika former av lånefonder.
Kreditgivning via ömsesidiga fonder
Under LPB, people who seek to lend money to home buyers would simply purchase shares in a mutual fund investing in mortgages, with the money going directly to the mutual fund (not to the bank sponsoring the fund) and from there to the home buyer in return for his or her mortgage. Those wanting to lend to companies would buy mutual funds investing in commercial paper. Those wishing to finance credit card balances would buy mutual funds investing in those assets. Credit is ultimately supplied by people [min kursivering], not via some magical financial machine. And every dollar people want to lend would be provided to borrowers via mutual funds.
To ensure the security of all these mutual funds, banks would be required to engage third party custodians, and a new federal regulatory authority‐‐let’s call it the Federal Financial Authority (FFA)‐¬would oversee these arrangements and ensure that no Bernie Madoff could ever again self‐custody his clients’ assets and spend their money illegally.
The FFA would have other roles as well. For one, it would establish, like the Food and Drug Administration does, the safety of various securities: Every security sold on the market‐‐beit an individual mortgage, a commercial loan, a foreign security, or a share of stock‐‐would be rated and fully disclosed by the FFA, with no exception. Thus, we’d no longer have to rely solely on private rating companies that are paid by those they rate.
A new mortgage, commercial loan, credit card, issuance of stock, new real estate trust, etc. would be initiated by a bank, sent to the FFA (and private parties, as desired) for rating, income verification, and disclosure, and then sold by the bank to mutual funds, including mutual funds that the bank itself markets to the public. Once funded, the new securities would be held by the owners of the mutual fund¬‐in other words, by people.
Det är inte helt lätt att förstå hur en sådan här ordning för kreditgivningen skulle fungera i verkligheten. Men grundtanken tycks vara att varje sparare/investerare skall vara sin egen kreditgivare. Det förefaller som om Kotlikoff tänkt att kreditbedömningen som i dag sker i banker och andra kreditinstitut skulle försvinna och ersättas med ett offentligt ratingorgan som i princip förutsätts utfärda betyg för varje tillgång/kredit. Eller om han möjligen menar att de ömsesidiga, kreditorienterade fonderna skulle ha egna kreditbedömare?
För mig är det också oklart hur de illikvida lånen skulle hanteras i den här modellen. För sanningen är ju att på bankernas tillgångssida finns en stor mängd krediter som i praktiken inte har en marknad, respektive inte låter sig värdepapperiseras. Hur har Kotlikoff tänkt sig att dessa skulle hanteras? Föreställer han sig att i stort sett alla illikvida krediter, i praktiken krediter till privatpersoner och SME-företag, i framtiden kommer att kunna omvandlas till värdepapper? Möjligen.
Modellen reser också en mer grundläggande fråga. Bankernas kanske mest centrala uppgift sett i ett samhällsekonomiskt perspektiv är att via en professionell kreditbedömning allokera knappa resurser till de ändamål och projekt som har störst förutsättningar att bli ekonomiskt framgångsrika. Hur skall den rollen ersättas om Limited Purpose Banking implementeras? Är det tänkt att ratingen skall fungera som effektiv kreditallokerare?
Mindre av parfordringar, mer av “break the buck”
In requiring that cash mutual funds hold just cash, LPB effectively provides for 100‐percent reserve requirements on checking accounts. This eliminates any need for FDIC insurance and any possibility of future bank runs. Moreover, since no bank would hold any risky assets apart from the value of its furniture, buildings, and land, and would hold no debts (apart from the mortgages on its property and any loans used to finance its operations), there would be no need for capital requirements.
Det här måste rimligen tolkas så att Kotlikoff menar att jag som sparare/placerare har två möjligheter. Antingen placera i mer eller mindre riskfyllda fonder utan att med säkerhet veta att när jag sätter in 1 000 kronor har jag en fordran på 1 000 kronor, det amerikanarna kallar “break the buck”. Fordran kan när den skall realiseras, kort sagt när pengarna skall tas ut, vara större eller mindre beroende på hur fonden har utvecklat sig. Eller också sparar jag nominellt säkert i en kassafond, det vill säga 1 000 kronor in betyder med säkerhet 1 000 kronor i fordran, vare sig mer eller mindre.
En sådan modell kräver självklart ingen inlåningsförsäkring. En run är ju otänkbar. Det som är mindre klart är hur betalningssystemet i stort skulle fungera. Det förefaller som om Kotlikoff menar att varje fond som så önskar skulle kunna ge sina andelsägare en möjlighet att ”skriva checkar mot sitt andelsvärde”, det vill säga den modell som redan används av ömsesidiga fonder i många länder. Om det finns inte mycket att säga. Men om han tänker sig att i princip alla betalningar skulle hanteras antingen med kontanter (respektive genom dragningar på nominellt säkra fordringar i kassafonder, till exempel via kort, uttagsautmater, checkar etc.) eller med rätten att skriva ut fordringar på ömsesidiga fonder och andra non-par tillgångsportföljer (till exempel en aktiedepå) framgår inte.
Det som inte heller är fullt klart är hur Kotlikoff ser på behovet av en lender of last resort. Det är möjligt att han menar att det skall inte behövas eftersom runs är otänkbara i ett finansiellt system grundat på ömsesidiga fonder.
Till sist
I dagarna har Kotlikoff kommit med en bok, Jimmy Stewart is Dead, där han mer i detalj utvecklar sina idéer kring Limited Purpose Banking. Jag har beställt boken men ännu inte fått den. Då får man förmoda att en del av de frågor och undringar som de här citaten ger upphov till besvaras – och besvaras på ett sådant sätt att man känner sig övertygad. Med risk att få fel tror jag ändå inte att Kotlikoffs modell kommer att kunna bli verklighet – av väsentligen ett grundläggande skäl, den är mindre effektiv än den nuvarande ordningen. Det bankbaserade finanssystemet må vara instabilt, och det må då och då medverka till oerhört kostsamma kriser som den vi just nu lever med, men den kreditbedömning som görs i banker och andra finansinstitut är minst sagt samhällsekonomiskt central. Jag har för min del mycket svårt att se att ett ratingbaserat lånesystem, och inte minst om det skulle centraliseras till någon form av myndighet, kan komma ens i närheten av en så effektiv kreditbedömning som bankerna nu står för. Om jag har rätt i den tron, och inte helt har missuppfattat hur Kotlikoff menar att krediterna skall allokeras, ja då är Limited Purpose Banking inte något att rekommendera. Resursfördelningen i samhället skulle bli mindre effektiv. Det skulle drabba tillväxten, och därmed välfärden.
Det här betyder inte att jag tycker att Kotlikoff helt är ute och seglar. Tvärtom tror jag att han ligger helt rätt i tanken att använda ömsesidiga fonder både som verktyg för sparande/placering och betalningar. Det jag däremot tror är att kreditgivningen, och i synnerhet den kreditgivning som genererar illikvida lån, skall läggas i andra händer, i specialinstitut för krediter som fundar sig på den professionella penning- och kapitalmarknaden. Det är innebörden i mitt förslag om fanker (=fond+bank) i Banker – behövs dom? från 1993.
Läs Fabeln om fanker!
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