karl-henrik pettersson


Filosofiska tankar om företagande och ekonomi

Vilket samhälle vill vi ha? Hur mycket marknad? Hur mycket politik? Varför dessa ekonomiska orättvisor?

Det är Europa, inte USA, som bär lejonparten av kreditförlusterna

IMF, International Monetary Fund, kom för några veckor sedan med sin senaste stabiliseringsrapport. Den är som alltid intressant. Dels eftersom den är välgjord, väldokumenterad och aktuell. Dels, och viktigast, eftersom den ger en mer heltäckande bild av det globala finansiella systemets tillstånd än vad man hittar någon annanstans. Ta den här bilden som ett exempel.


Vad kan man läsa ut? Ja, en hel del. Mest intressant är att det är Europa som enligt IMF kommer att gå ur den nu aktuella krisen med störst kreditförluster, inte som man skulle kunna förvänta sig USA. Det var ju trots allt den amerikanska subprimekrisen som var orsak till debaclet. Jag har inte hör talas om någon bankkris där inte det land där krisen uppstod också har fått bära merparten av kreditförlusterna. Men så blir det av allt att döma den här gången. Så man kan hålla med Joseph Stiglitz, Nobelpristagare i ekonomi, som i sin senaste bok, Free Fall, skriver att USA skall vara mycket tacksamt för europeernas hjälp.

Att det har blivit på det här sättet hänger samman med det moderna finansiella systemets förmåga att risksprida. De amerikanska bankerna har under de senaste 10-15 åren blivit duktiga på att värdepapperisera sina bolån. Det betyder att av illikvida lån, alltså lån som normalt måste stanna i bankens balansräkning till inlösen, skapade bankerna handlingsbara värdepapper, och dessa så kallade MBSs (Mortgage Backed Securities) såldes i stora volymer över världen, inte minst till europeiska banker. De såldes också till en mängd andra investerare, till exempel pensionsfonder, kommuner, hedgefonder etc. Många av dessa var också europeiska. Det är tankeväckande att dessa förluster inte finns med i den här sammanställningen.

Och man kan se en del annat i bilden, till exempel att de asiatiska bankerna knappast drabbas alls av krisen, att det fortfarande finns stora förluster i pipelinen, inte minst i Europa. Och tittar vi på den stapel som kallas ”Other Mature Europe” där de svenska bankerna ingår förefaller man bara ha kommit halvvägs i nedskrivningsbehovet.

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