karl-henrik pettersson


Filosofiska tankar om företagande och ekonomi

Vilket samhälle vill vi ha? Hur mycket marknad? Hur mycket politik? Varför dessa ekonomiska orättvisor?

Funderingar kring en figur

untitled-11Vad den här figuren uttrycker i banal mening är enkelt att formulera. Den säger att under den gångna tioårsperioden, från 1998 och fram till idag, har koncentrationsgraden bland världens banker stigit. Kort sagt, de största bankerna har blivit än mer dominerande. Mätt som hur stor andel av de samlade banktillgångarna som de fem största aktörerna har kan man se att den har fördubblats, från 8% till 16% på bara ett decennium.  (Tankväckande nog fanns det ingen amerikansk bank bland de fem största 31 december 2008, det var istället fem europeiska banker – RBS, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas och HSBC)

Det andra figuren berättar, förmodligen förvånande för många, är att den globala hedgefondbranschen har gått i motsatt riktning. De fem största hedgefonderna svarade för 10 år sedan för 30% av tillgångarna, i dag för mindre än 10%.

Hur skall man förklara det här? Och framförallt hur skall man förklara att hedgefondindustrin utvecklats mot sjunkande koncentration? Ja, det måste till fördjupade analyser, och en djupare kunskap om hedgefonder än vad jag har, för att kunna uttala sig med säkerhet. Men om vi spekulerar i vilka orsaker som finns till att koncentrationsgraden i hedgefondbranschen minskat kan man åtminstone formulera ett antal hypoteser (utan rangordning i tyngd):
• Det lönar sig inte att bli större, alternativt ökar risken för mycket om storleken ökar.
• Ofta är hedgefonder partnerägda som erfarenhetsmässigt betyder mindre företag.
• Hedgefonder är mer specialiserade företag än banker, och det i sig sätter gränser för storleken.
• Hedgefondindustrin har ökat under perioden mätt i tillgångar samtidigt som antalet nya företag ökat ännu snabbare.

Och sedan det som jag tror är den viktigaste orsaken.

• Hedgefonder har inget statligt skyddsnät mot fallissemang av den typ banker har (inlåningsförsäkring, lender of last resort, too big to fail-stöd etc.)

Eftersom det största problemet för politiker och centralbanker med dagens finansiella system (enligt Ben Bernanke) är hur man skall kunna komma ifrån “too big to fail”-principen på bankområdet, alltså detta att det finns ett antal banker som är så stora att de måste räddas med skattemedel, borde det som hänt med hedgefondindustrin under de senaste tio åren antyda att den lösningen finns i mindre med regleringar, inte i det som det mest talas om i dessa dagar, mer regleringar. Att en avreglering skulle kräva radikala ingrepp i det finansiella systemets struktur är en helt annan sak som vi får diskutera en annan gång.




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