Tre grafer om en amerikansk ”revolution” med globala följder vi ännu inte riktigt uppfattat
På senare tid har vi då och då sett blänkare i media om stora amerikanska olje- och gasfyndigheter. Seriösa IEA har räknat ut att om några år, 2020, är USA världens största oljeproducent, större än Saudiarabien, med ca 11 miljoner fat olja om dagen. Idag ligger produktionen i USA på runt 7 miljoner fat, och så högt har den inte legat sedan början av 1990-talet. Men mest intressant är att utvecklingen går så snabbt, på några få år har USA gått från att vara en oljeproducent på nedgång till en av de mest expansiva.
Dessa tre grafer (klicka för större bild), baserade på Department of Energy´s senaste veckostatistik, berättar i korthet följande:
- USA:s oljeproduktion är den högsta sedan 1994;
- Oljeimporten är den lägsta sedan 1992;
- Jobben i oljeindustrin än flera idag än någon gång sedan 1988;
Vi behöver ju inte tveka om att det är en ekonomisk och politisk revolution med följder långt utanför USA:s gränser som dessa grafer berättar om. Exakt vad det kommer att få för ekonomiska konsekvenser är det väl ingen som ännu kan överblicka. Men att det skapar jobb, boostar USA:s BNP-tillväxt och positivt påverkar landets bytesbalans, är uppenbart.
Den snabba oljeproduktionsökningen är samtidigt kontroversiell. Den amerikanska miljörörelsen är kritisk. Och hur snabbt man skall gå fram är en fråga som, liksom så många andra, delar USA:s politiker efter ”blått och rött”. Demokraterna vill gå långsammare fram och vara någorlunda säkra på att miljökonsekvenserna är under kontroll, republikanerna ser inga sådana hinder. Det är ingen tillfällighet att det är den konservativa tankesmedjan American Enterprise Institute som har tagit fram graferna (se här), tidsmässigt anpassade till deras syfte att pusha för en snabb utveckling av vad den nya tekniken att utvinna kan erbjuda.
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