karl-henrik pettersson

karlhenrikpettersson.se

Filosofiska tankar om företagande och ekonomi

Vilket samhälle vill vi ha? Hur mycket marknad? Hur mycket politik? Varför dessa ekonomiska orättvisor?

Varför befinner sig USA:s samhällsmodell i kris?

Under de senaste 2-3 åren har några av USA:s mest respekterade ekonomer, journalister och politiska kommentatorer publicerat böcker med budskapet att den amerikanska samhällsmodellen är i djup kris. Tyler Cowen, Brad deLong, Thomas Friedman, Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, Joseph Stiglitz och Fareed Zakaria är några av de mera kända (se litteraturlistan).

Det grundläggande budskapet hos alla dessa, låt vara att de har sina speciella vinklingar och ”betoningar”, är att den amerikanska samhällsmodellen under senare decennier har utvecklats i alldeles fel riktning, kort sagt att USA som land håller på att urholka sina förutsättningar att klara sig i den globala konkurrensen. Det investeras för lite i gemensamma resurser, i till exempel utbildning och infrastruktur, och de amerikanska politikerna är inte beredda att fatta de åtstramande och skattehöjande beslut som krävs för att få kontroll över statsskulden (som nu är över 100% av BNP, jfr med Sveriges statskuld på ca 40%). Och inkomstfördelningen har blivit snedare och snedare så till den grad att numera tar den procent av befolkningen som tjänar mest hand om 25% av alla inkomster, och ökar sina relativinkomster för varje år som går, medan det i andra änden av skalan idag finns kring 40 miljoner amerikaner, nästan en av fem, som måste få socialbidrag (”foodstamps”) för allt någorlunda överleva, långt flera än för tio år sedan. Den gemensamma nämnaren för de senaste 2-3 decenniernas utveckling är att det kollektiva, det gemensamma i det amerikanska samhället, har satts på svältkost medan det privata har fått ta för sig alltmera oreglerat, och utan hänsyn till om hela samhället i stort mår bra eller inte. Det är detsamma som att säga att USA idag kännetecknas av mycket stora underinvesteringar i kollektiva nyttigheter, allt från infrastruktur till utbildning, och i hjälp till de svaga i samhället att leva med sitt predikament, i bästa fall ta sig ur det.

Och det är bara den ekonomiska sidan av saken. Till det kommer tecknen på att fler amerikaner än tidigare mår dåligt, att de sociala problemen är större i USA än i något annat västland (som till exempel Wilkinson & Pickett övertygande har dokumenterat i sin bok The Spirit Level), att den omskrutna höga sociala rörligheten, ”arbeta hårt och spara och du kommer att lyckas”, inte längre existerar, i själva verket är det mycket svårare för en amerikan idag att socialt komma loss från sin föräldrageneration än vad som gäller i till exempel Europa, att den självklara politiska auktoritet som ligger i att vara världens största ekonomi håller på att urholkas, Kina kommer högst troligt att ha en större BNP än USA före 2020 etc. Allt detta, och mycket mer, bidrar till att känslan hos många amerikaner är att något är allvarligt fel. ”America today is not healthy”, som Thomas Friedman och Michael Mandelbaum skriver sammanfattningsvis i sin bok That Used to be Us.

Det mest allvarliga är att det inte blir någonting gjort åt situationen. Det i sin tur kokar ner till det politiska systemets handlingsförlamning. Polariseringen i kongressen i Washington DC är mer påtaglig än någonsin. Och att inte kunna komma till beslut i centrala politiska frågor är katastrofalt för landet, särskilt i en situation när andra länder, inte minst Kina, USA:s främsta rival om världshegemonin, arbetar för full maskin för att bli mer konkurrenskraftiga.

Hur har det kunnat bli så här? Varför har USA dessa problem? Ja, jag menar att det är två sammanfallande krafter som har verkat. Det har jag skrivit om i min bok Dagbok från USA. Anteckningar om en samhällsmodell i fritt fall (läs mera här)

”Small government”-strategin har nått vägs ände

För det första har det ekonomisk-politiska paradigm som sjösattes i början av 1980-talet med Ronald Reagan som politisk banérförare varit mycket väsentligt, närmast avgörande, för att det i USA under decennier underinvesterats i utbildning, infrastruktur och andra kollektiva varor. Det var trots allt Reagan som i sitt installationstal 1981 sa att ”government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem”. Denna ”small government-strategy” har dominerat amerikansk politik sedan 1980-talet. Det är inget konstigt med det.  Det var säkert motiverat i meningen att regleringarna av marknaderna under de så kallade ”gyllene decennierna”, 1950- och 1960-talen, hade gått för långt, det hade blivit alltför mycket ”government” och alltför lite marknad. Det var rätt att avreglera och hårdare granska de offentliga budgeterna. Men med tiden gick också det här ekonomisk-politiska synsättet för långt. Kring sekelskiftet 2000 fanns det svaga signaler, i dag kan man se dem tydligt, som antydde att det mesta av det nya paradigmets kraft var borta. Det fanns tvärtom allvarliga problem med att släppa marknaderna än mer fria, det gällde framförallt finansmarknaderna. Efter finanskrisen 2008/2009 rådde det ingen tvekan hos många ekonomer, ”Reaganomics” hade nått vägs ände. Men som sagt, under tiden, under snart tre decennier, hade amerikansk politik, och det gäller för både republikaner och demokrater, idémässigt dominerats av ett synsätt där det närmast hade varit en politisk självklarhet, och för många libertarianer en politisk dygd, att det offentliga skall hållas kort. Och det skall tilläggas, att det synsättet, ”small government-strategy”, fortfarande har politisk majoritet i Washington. Det gör inte situationen lättare.

För det andra handlar det om hur det amerikanska politiska systemet, och vi talar då om kongressen, fungerar idag. Ett antal samverkande orsaker har gjort att kongressen har politiskt polariserats. Det har bland annat med historiska omständigheter att göra, till exempel att den starka falang av konservativa sydstatsdemokrater som tidigare fanns i praktiken har gått upp i det republikanska partiet. Eller uttryckt på annat sätt, republikanerna har med tiden blivit det mer renodlat konservativa partiet medan demokraterna har blivit det mer renodlat liberala partiet (där ”liberal” närmast skall tolkas som en blandning av socialliberalism och socialdemokrati i nordisk mening). Det har också påverkats av valtekniska förhållanden. Så kallad ”gerrymandering”, detta att valkretsindelningen anpassas så att respektive partis förutsättningar att vinna maximeras, har fått den, säkert oönskade, konsekvensen att de politiker som väljs har, visavi den politiska mitten, radikaliserats. Polariseringen har också blivit starkare av medias sätt att rapportera om politiken, av att sociala medier spelar en större roll för politiken, och av att de politiska partierna har fått mindre att säga till om relativt hur det var tidigare, med andra ord, den enskilde kongressledamoten har fått mera att säga till om. Eller som Fareed Zakaria uttrycker saken: ”Kongressen idag består av en samling av 535 oberoende politiska entreprenörer som sköter systemet med sina individuella intressen – det vill säga att bli omvalda – i högsätet. Hur man än mäter – i termer av lagförslag, tillägg, förslag om avskaffande av lagar – är systemet långt mer lyhört för varje enskild medlems nycker. Det är också långt mer lyhört för icke-medlemmar.”

Särintresset slår ut allmänintresset

Det senare leder över till det verkligt avgörande, det alla kritiker jag har läst är överens om, att särintressena, lobbyingkrafterna på Capitol Hill, har fått så mycket att säga till om i amerikansk nationell politik att de, med en viss överdrift, själva bestämmer vilka lagförslag som skall bli lag. Det gäller i första hand för de tunga lobbyingbranscherna, Big Oil, Big Health och Wall Street. Jeffrey Sachs redovisar i The Price for Civilization en tabell med hur mycket de stora lobbyingaktörerna satsar i pengar varje år, och konstaterar kärnfullt: ”The list of sectors in lobbying is like a who’s who of bad corporate behavior.”

Men om särintressena har fått mycket att säga till om i Washington DC, och om det verkar alla seriösa iakttagare således vara överens, är det tveklöst samma sak som att säga att allmänintresset har fått stå tillbaka. För särintresset står definitionsmässigt i motsatsställning till allmänintresset.

Det blir tydligt om man konkretiserar. Thomas Friedman skriver i This Used to be Us om en amerikansk småföretagare, Mike Biddle, som han träffade hösten 2010. Biddles företag sysslar med att återvinna gammal plast, “above ground mining” som han uttrycker det, vilket bland annat gjorde honom till vinnare av The Economist’s 2010 Innovations Award for Energy and Environment. Hans företag arbetar i Kina och Europa men inte i USA. Varför det frågar Friedman? Ja, det finns i USA ingen nationell lagstiftning som tvingar företagen att ta hand om sitt plastskrot, och det gör skillnad, det går inte få lönsamhet i verksamheten. Han berättar att han försökt påverka politikerna i Washington men motkrafterna, särskilt Big Oil, säger nej. Biddle avslutar med att säga:”Sometimes I feel like I have lost my country. It is just not that exiting to be an American right now.”

För att sammanfatta. USA har satt sig i ett svårt läge med alltför små investeringar i kollektiva nyttigheter, och med låg sannolikhet att kunna politiskt bli överens om att göra något åt saken. Det har blivit så av väsentligen två skäl. För det första har det ekonomisk-politiska paradigm som behärskat amerikansk politik sedan 1980-talets början (och för övrigt också dominerat många andra västländers politik), och som haft som politisk idé att minimera det gemensamma och det kollektiva, fått härska allt för länge. För det andra har denna ”small government-strategy” också fått näring, och politisk kraft, genom att allmänintresset trängts tillbaka av mycket starka särintressen.

Litteratur:

Cohen, S. S. & DeLong, J. B., 2010, The End of Influence, Basic Books, New York;

Cowen, T., 2011, The Great Stagnation, How America Ate All Low-hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better, Dutton, New York;

Friedman, T., L., & Mandelbaum, M., 2011, That Used to be Us, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York;

Pettersson, K.-H., 2012, Dagbok från USA, Anteckningar om en samhällsmodell i fritt fall, Livrel Publishing, Alingsås (kan laddas ner här)

Sachs, J., D., 2011, The Prize of Civilization, Random House, New York;

Stiglitz, J. E., 2009, Freefall, W. W. Norton & Company, New York;

Wilkinson, R. & Pickett, K., 2009, The Spirit Level, Penguin Books, London;

Zakaria, F., 2009, The Post American World, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., New York;

 

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2013-02-24

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