karl-henrik pettersson

karlhenrikpettersson.se

Filosofiska tankar om företagande och ekonomi

Vilket samhälle vill vi ha? Hur mycket marknad? Hur mycket politik? Varför dessa ekonomiska orättvisor?

Varför dessa ökade klyftor? Och varför gör inte politikerna något åt saken?

Nyckelord: "Ekonomisk filosofi",Ideologi,Kapitalism,Politik

Idag kom siffror från SCB som visar att Inkomstskillnaderna i Sverige aldrig har varit större i modern tid. Den sk gini-koeffcienten som mäter inkomstklyftorna, ju lägre siffra, desto bättre, var den högsta sedan mätningarna startade 1975.

Vill man förstå de växande ekonomiska klyftorna i västvärlden måste man gå tillbaka i historien. Den börjar strax efter kriget.

De två första efterkrigsdecennierna, fram till mitten av 1960-talet var en enda lång framgångshistoria för nästan alla OECD-länder. Kallades ibland den gyllene eran. Inte minst svensk ekonomi gick som tåget. ”Den svenska modellen”, socialdemokratisk ingenjörskonst i den högre skolan, var omtalad och beundrad. Gradvis, särskilt under första hälften av 1970-talet, krackelerade modellen. Det var då varvs-, stål- och tekoindustrierna slogs ut, och de årliga löneökningar låg på 10-15%. Även i andra västländer stagnerade tillväxten och produktiviteten, och inflationen bet sig fast (stagflation). Det ekonomiskt-politiska paradigm, starkt socialdemokratiskt präglat inte bara i Sverige, som kännetecknat 1950- och 1960-talen hade politiskt nått vägs ände.

Ett nytt politiskt tankesystem, nyliberalismen, växte gradvis fram. Reagan USA och Thatcher i Europa, båda konservativa, var politiska fanbärare för de nya idéerna. Marknadskrafterna fick större friheter. Näringspolitik (läs statlig inblandning) var i den gamla modellen något progressivt, nu blev det något fult. Avreglering och privatisering var inneorden.

Det var ett nödvändigt (inte minst för Sverige) och lyckat skifte i paradigm mätt i ekonomisk tillväxt. Perioden 1990-2009 är en ny gyllene era för OECD-länderna. Inflationen, produktiviteten, reallönerna, jobben, så gott som allt som räknas utvecklas gynnsamt.

Varför vi får ökade klyftor

Problemet med nyliberalismen var fördelningen av tillväxten. Tog tid innan det uppfattades som ett politiskt problem. Långt in på 2000-talet, egentligen först efter finanskrisen. Vissa ekonomer och debattörer hade tidigt pekat på växande inkomstskillnader och orättvisor. Sådana analyser kom allt tätare. Man kunde visa att för stora grupper amerikanska arbetare och tjänstemän hade år 2010 reallönen stått stilla sedan 80-talets början. Under tre decennier! Inte alls så i Sverige, de som haft jobb hade också fått reallöneökningar. Ändå fanns samma mönster här. Kapitalägarna och de som hjälper kapitalägarna (typ VD-ar, chefer, specialister och problemlösare i och utanför företagen) var de stora vinnarna i fördelningsracet. Särskilt de som också haft stora kapitalinkomster. Kort sagt, nyliberalismen hade för flertalet människor i västvärlden, dock inte för alla, hjälpt till att väsentligt höja köpkraften och levnadsstandarden. Men den hade också gjort en minoritet av befolkningen extremt rika, ofta de som redan från början hade höga inkomster och förmögenheter. De ekonomiska klyftorna hade ökat dramatiskt bland OECD-länderna. Mest i USA och England, minst i de nordiska länderna och Japan.

Politikerna har blivit “kapitalismens talesmän”

Det tog för mig tid att förstå varför våra politiker inte gjort något åt den här utvecklingen. Den är moraliskt upprörande för nästan alla människor. Ohållbar. Som gjord för politikerna att ta tag i. Ändå har det inte skett. Varför? Det enkla svaret är att de inte har ”haft råd” om de skulle bli omvalda. Utvecklingen efter 1980 med nyliberalismen, den globaliserade ekonomin inklusive fria kapitalflöden och den teknologiska utvecklingen, inte minst digitaliseringen, har ökat konkurrensen enormt (med en massa positiva följder för tillväxten och reallönerna). Men den har också gjort nationella politiker till en slags statister. Med långt mindre frihetsgrader än vad som gällde under det tidigare, Keynesianska (socialdemokratiska) paradigmet. Politikerna har efter 1980 inte haft något annat val än att med sin politik ”göra det egna landet ännu mer konkurrenskraftigt”. Politikerna har blivit en slags ”kapitalismens talesmän”. Tvärtemot hur det var under till exempel 1960- och 1970-talen då företagen och VDar och liknande var något fult. Eller åtminstone något som politikerna, även de borgerliga (möjligen med undantag för Högern), helst inte ville förknippa sig med.

Nyliberalismen lever på övertid

Med det har vi satt fingret på dagens stora politiska problem – att hitta ett nytt tankesystem som kan ersätta nyliberalismen. Nyliberalismen lever på övertid. Tiden efter finanskrisen, perioden från 2010 fram till idag, är en enda lång villrådighetens period. Ungefär som 1970-talet var på sin tid. Produktiviteten sjunker. Tillväxten vill inte ta fart. Trots nollräntepolitik och QE. År 2022 har världen dessutom, delvis orsakad av pandemier, ett storkrig i Ukraina och andra störningar i världsekonomin, drabbats av svår inflation. Senaste KPI-siffran i Sverige var 10%. Liksom det som följer med hög inflation – snabbt stigande räntor, lågkonjunktur och kanske, lite längre fram, ökande arbetslöshet.

Hur ett nytt paradigm kan se ut? Ja, det är den stora frågan.

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2023-01-25

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